Trading 2009

2008 was a brutal bear market, with volatility up the sky; the DOW traded its largest daily swings ever. Lehman Brother's collapsed, yet other major banks found bailouts. The list goes on.

Here on the first trading day of 2009, the NASDAQ 100 traded up very nicely. Looking at the daily chart, we see that not only did the Q's break above prior resistance at 30.50 (the 61% retracement point from the November highs), but it closed above the 10,20,50 SMA. We also have convergence of these averages, which is important. This indicates the end of the market decline and the beggining of accumulation, the long process of healing. This type of market is subject to a long period of sideways movement; very much a range bound market. Also we have our first "long" signal from the DMI indicator. The crossing of the of the DM+ and DM-, as well as the ADX above 20 (though it is declining). I am not acting on this long signal, but it is the first real signal since August/September '08.

These are some promising signs that the world is not over and we will live to trade another day.

I started the trading year by closing out and posting profits from my short position I took on Citi. The stock has taken a beating, but has found good support. Come next week, I will most likely open another short put and let theta decay away.

Also, I have several stocks on my watch list that have also taken a beating, but have good potential for a fast rally this month. If these can show strength and break out, I'll take some small long positions with out/at the money calls.

2009 is all about managing risk and using what the market hands me to my advantage.

Bailout

Fears of a bailout failure cut the rally yesterday at the hip. And it appears as though the actual failure of the bailout might go down to the knees. However, there is a lot of bad news already thrown into the price. I don't see a lot of good signs for GM stock, but there are others out there that won't take it on the chin like that. All said and done, it looks like there will be an early morning slide, it's already gaping lower by a dollar. The rest of the day will be very choppy. An afternoon rally? Probably not, if there is one in the works, Monday might be a better candidate.

Puts

This week I was stopped out of my puts on the Q's. Got frustrated as all get up, so I decided to take a short side of a put instead. I went ahead and sold Jan puts on Citi. My bet is that Citi will trend above 5.

Things are getting choppy and I am having trouble picking pivot points, so I will probably just sell some out of the money puts over the next few months. Much lower return, but theoretically less risk than the swing trades I have been making.

Market Shakeup

The Economic news has been weighing on the markets. People want the markets to go higher, the buyers try and push, but in the end, the sellers are in control as the constant drum beat of negativity resounds. The jobless report that comes out today was on everyone's mind. I couldn't bring myself to take a long position in that kind of situation. However, if there is a significant shake up today, and some of those weak kneed stock holders sell out, maybe we can get some momentum next week. If that flush can come, I might set myself up with a small long position to hold over the weekend, and play a gap up over the weekend--very risky, I know. We'll just see how it goes.

Futures are down, and the Q's appear to head for a gap lower. They broke through some recent support yesterday, looking to see where the next strong support might be hiding.

CPSL

Sold new calls against my CPSL stock. CPSL, like the rest of the market has taken a beating. My long term outlook is still good, financial statements still look intact. My plan is to slowly buy up more shares and lower my cost basis, and continue to sell what calls I can, though their yield has dropped off. To be expected though.

Looking to see what the markets going to do today after yesterdays slump.