Thursday, September 18, 2008

VIX is High

VIX is high, but I am not buying. I don't believe the VIX has topped out, and VIX has been higher in the past, during the .Com bust, and the '02-'03 recession with the collapse of Enron and Worldcom.

I don't want to go long until well after October, because October 15th is when hedge fund managers close out their books for the year for tax reasons. This is generally when we see those managers jettison their loosers, and the markets sees another major fall.

This year with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and another round of beatings for the rest of the financials, it doesn't look good. October has a chance to be the worst month, and then things will have a chance to get better, but until then, I am not bullish.