Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Oil's Pullback

Exxon Mobile road the wave of rising oil from 2006 to 2008, with a few minor pullbacks along the way. It rose from around $60 to $95. It was a pretty spectacular ride. I bought in at $75 back at the end of 2006, with no real strategy in mind, other than long (which really isn't much of a strategy when you think about it).

It topped $95 back in 2007, pulled back, and topped $95 again, and right around that time, the market started to turn south. Financials started to get shaky knees from that Parkinsons disease they had, and wouldn't admit to. During that period, oil was on the rise, profits were on the rise, but missing the mark.

XOM played around in the $80's, dancing with itself. And again, XOM began to spike, up to $94, and back down to $88. Making $88 a good place for support, because it looks like it was a prior resistance level (April couldn't break out above 88). XOM spiked back to $94, and back down, making two little mountain shapes--a Double Top.

After a double top is formed, if it breaks below prior support $88 in this case, it is going to drop like a fat kid on a slide.

Unfortunetely I decided to try a new strategy entirely, which required me to liquidate my position in Exxon Mobile. Which I ended up selling for $83.71. I have no long positions in Oil and Gas at this time. So long Exxon, it's been a nice ride.