Saturday, July 26, 2008

Opportunities Missed

After spring 2007, Exxon began to make a bullish run, from $70 a share in March to $93 a share in August. By that time, my still very lopsided portfolio, sported 1 share of WMT, 175 shares of ADVDX, and 38 shares of XOM, all of which were looking very good.

I still had no trading strategy, and was still feeling around in the dark like a mole in a trash heap. I wasn't thrilled with my mutual fund; and with a gain of 1% against Exxon's glorious ride to the top, who wouldn't be disenchanted?

I wanted to hang on to XOM, because I had read an article, that this stock was a likely candidate for a split. Share price had increased dramatically, and a split hadn't happened in some time. I decided that holding onto XOM, rather than buying low and selling high, was the best way to go.

Conoco Phillips was catching my eye. It had also made a similarly dramatic move. And, late August it was coming back down. I told myself, that if it dropped below $80 a share, I would buy it. I would sell my ADVDX fund, and buy COP. COP dipped below $80, but I didn't buy. I sat on it, and missed the opportunity.

COP eventually went back up to over $90. Right around the time I needed to sell ADVDX for a major purchase. Had I sold ADVDX and bought COP at that time, and then sold it in October, I would have increased that positions nearly 11% in the space of 3 months.

I had actually set up a trade with an entrance point, and a time frame of how long I wanted to hold it for, but for some reason, I didn't execute.